Covid-19 Fall out and Hope: With the pandemic now effecting everyday life everywhere on this globe, almost all public activities have been severely curtailed. These include public event cancellations, school and university closures, remote work, supply chain disruptions, travel bans, and almost any other public assemblies conceivable. Social distancing measures are being enforced in affected countries and highly recommended in others in anticipation. There is also a concern among Health experts that Covid-19 may mutate and transform into a seasonal event, much like the flu. While these are hypotheses now (SARS and MERS have not returned) and with a vaccine likely in the future, it is better to think of these scenarios and embed into business planning for such a situation in the future. Covid19 has essentially changed how the world views life and living. What could be some fall-out and risk management efforts after Covid-19 lifts?
Public events: Professional conferences, tradeshows, concert events, game events and leagues, theater and cinema premieres, and such events stand cancelled worldwide at this time. This will continue to have ripple effects log after the event is over and the world inches toward normalcy. Just think about the ad revenues lost because of cancelled sporting events globally. After the Covid19 event eases and business resumes, how do organizers ensure public safety during and after such events? How is contagion avoided at such scale? There have been multiple reports of attendees being infected, and this is expected at large gatherings and the ability of the virus to transmit within a certain distance.
In the future, there will be a need for disseminating and communicating frequently and widely to contagion risks as part of event planning. Although, the risk is not minimized or mitigated by awareness alone, it certainly helps to communicate. Also, how can technology be used to minimize such contagion, beyond a vaccine? Can we develop and install user friendly quick scan “disinfectants” at entry and egress points or at multiple points within the facility and at other public places, such as, universities, libraries, etc.? These could be devices like airport human scans or simpler for hands and nail disinfectants like the restroom air dryers. And can we handle outdoor gatherings similarly?
Telework: As of now, many organizations globally have asked their employees to work from home (WFH) for 14 days, when possible. This tactic is limited in service work where customer or product contact is necessary, such as, healthcare, distribution centers, and others. The Covid19 event is a real test for the effectiveness of the WFH tactic. While WFH has been in practice for quite some time now in technology and remote operations, such as claims and bill processing or customer agent work, entire organizations WFH practice is completely new. What if this proves to be effective within the 14 days to mitigate the Covid19 spread and what if organizations decide to experiment it for longer periods and it also proves effective? In this scenario, it is conceivable that the demand for office space will likely decline with the need to meet for work managed by adhoc or planned meeting and space planning. What is the impact to the commercial real estate market, the supply chain (restaurants, food kiosks, office cleaners, etc.), and local tax revenue in such a situation when there is a drawdown of employees coming to the office, office space is left unnecessary , and supply side demand is lessened? What plans and policies do cities, towns, and municipalities need to address this scenario? What paid time off policies or coverages need to be developed and activated in both private and public sectors?
Academia: Schools, colleges, and universities are also closing to mitigate contagion. Like service industries, there are situations, such as, laboratory or experimental work that require on-premise activity. However, e-learning is mainstream with courses, exams, and teaching being conducted on-line. Will the Covid19 event provide a catalyst for academia to offer various plans for on-line on-premise combinations with differing tuition options or look for ways to improve their cost and pricing structure? How could this create new businesses or enhance existing ones for content, technology, and service providers?
Supply Chain: Covid19 has had a significant effect on supply chains and the real quantified impact is yet to be seen. Single sourcing from one region or country is a large risk and businesses need to enhance their risk planning and analysis to evaluate the effect of yet unknown factors and develop options. An example is the insufficient stocking of key medical supplies dependent on Chinese suppliers, who are out of production and organizations keeping minimal inventory to cut inventory costs. The risk of the supply unable to match the infected surges is real. Technology and digital transformation must be used to enable cost competitiveness locally. It is also very important to decentralize the supply chains with multiple vendors of choice and use technology better across the supply chain for nimbleness in order management and delivery.
Healthcare: Covid19 has shown huge surges in incoming patients overwhelming treatment capacity of hospitals and health services. There are not enough hospital beds and treatment equipment, and an inability to manage the surge with the surge capacity, while also providing medical services to in-patients requiring constant medical care, such as, acute care patients. What models, such as field hospitals, coordinated contribution of doctors and nurses between countries, vacant office, warehouse, other spaces, are or will be available to treat surges and what will be procurement models for human and equipment capacity? To what extent would telemedicine work in cases like Covid19 surges and what would be global and local policies for treatment? What operational readiness practices and medical supply procurement policies need to be put in place?
Technology: Technology, holistically, can, will, and should be developed and used with specific risk management situations, such as, Covid19. For example, combinatorial models using telemedicine, capacity analysis, doctor and nurse availability, should be developed to determine which patients to bring to the hospital and which to treat remotely. This will prevent the “lottery” decision made by hospitals in Italy where only patients with “better” chances of survival were being treated. Technology based proactive data analysis
Above all, we need to remember that “you do all the strategy and then get punched in the face”. While, nothing can save an organization or country from incompetence at the highest level, a methodical surveillance and risk management coupled with robust public and organizational alleviates the risk significantly after getting punched in the face and wobbling back up again.